The Bailout and Persuasion Tactics. . . .or, “If I've Learned One Thing, It's Never One Thing”

By Amy Showalter

I’ve read with interest some blog postings and news accounts of the votes by the U.S. House of Representatives on the $700 billion Wall Street rescue plan. Some were straight news accounts, other heralded that the vote results were directly correlated to citizen grassroots input and nothing else. As one who promotes the grassroots persuasion “lifestyle,” you’d think I’d be doing a victory dance at these “insights.” Au contraire, it reminded me how attributing influence success to one tactic is a faulty way to evaluate success (or failure). It leads to flawed influence strategy. If I’ve learned one thing, it’s never one thing that leads to influence success. You have to have lots of tools in the toolbox, and leverage the environmental context in your favor.

Let’s take a look at the rescue (or bailout, depending on your “frame”) vote. It is a compelling influence analysis for anyone who wants to better understand how to change a lawmaker’s mind.

A closer look at some of the 58 members of Congress who changed their votes from no to yes illustrates what I have described as “key predictors” of effective persuasion tactics.

The predictors of success are based on original research my firm conducted with more than 20 government relations professionals at top lobbying organizations in 2006 and 2007. Most of the participants were from organizations on Fortune's Power 25, which includes well-known grass-roots organizations like the National Rifle Association, the AARP and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Participants were asked to account for more than 70 variables that predict an organization’s ability to influence the hardest political target of all - undecided legislators.

The Margin of Victory Matters

The most powerful example from the bailout vote involved the legislator’s margin of victory. Our experience and research show that there are several predictors that can cause legislators to change their minds. The most prominent is that they are more likely to change their minds if they won their last election by a wide margin.

Of the 58 legislators who changed their minds, 50 were unopposed or won their seats by comfortable or wide margins in 2006. So it follows that of the 41 legislators in races judged to be “highly competitive” by Congressional Quarterly, 34 refused to vote for the controversial bailout package both times.

Our survey showed that freshman legislators were more strident in their views and less likely to change their minds than seasoned legislators. So I wasn’t surprised that all of the 15 freshmen Republican lawmakers voted against the rescue package twice, despite a full court press by President Bush, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Sen. John McCain.

Key Influentials and Mind-Changers

It gets even more interesting when you look at the lawmakers who did change their minds and their reasons why.

Our survey showed that undecided lawmakers are more likely to change their minds if they hear from people they trust. We call those people “key influentials;” personal friends, local elected officials and opinion leaders in the legislator’s district.

At least 10 of the lawmakers who changed their mind and voted “yes” on the second vote said they were influenced by phone calls or other communication from constituents or opinion leaders all of whom could be defined as “key influentials.” Several of those lawmakers said they changed their minds after talking to presidential candidates Barack Obama or John McCain, certainly considered to be “key influentials” of the highest order.

Rep. Howard Coble (R-N.C.), a fiscal conservative, told the New York Times he changed his vote after receiving a torrent of telephone and email that had swung in favor of the bill. He also said he heard from Leo M. Lambert, the president of Elon University president in Elon, N.C., who said the school had been squeezed by the credit crisis.

Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-Md.) told The Washington Post his change of heart was influenced by a small business owner who makes wire baskets in Baltimore and feared he couldn’t make payroll because a bank had cut his line of credit.

Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-Oh), changed her vote after she heard from some of the largest employers in her district who were struggling to make payroll, according to The Cleveland Plain Dealer.

Rep. Joe Knollenberg, (R-Mich.), who faces one of the toughest re-election fights in the House, told the Associated Press he changed his mind after he received telephone calls from General Motors CEO Rick Wagoner and other auto and corporate executives. "I've never talked to as many bank presidents in my life, over my entire life," he said.

Knollenberg has received $131,500 from General Motors since he started serving in Congress in 1993, according to federal election commission records, illustrating another predictor of influence success. Our analysis showed that giving a legislator the maximum allowable PAC contribution is a predictor of persuasion success.

Lobbyists representing the housing, financial, auto and other business sectors pushed hard for the bailout bill. Several of the lawmakers who changed their minds have received campaign contributions from those industry PAC’s.

Schmidt has received $70,100 from American Financial Group, a Cincinnati-based insurance holding company and $16,500 from the American Bankers Association since she was elected to Congress in 1989.

Rep. Judy Biggert, (R-Ill.), was the only Illinois lawmaker to change her mind about the bailout package. Since she began representing her suburban Chicago district in 1989, she’s received $45,000 from the National Association of Realtors, $39,500 from the National Auto Dealers Association and $37,548 from the American Bankers Association.

Most lawmakers say they aren’t influenced by campaign contributions, but the recent bailout votes suggest otherwise. We found that the most successful influence attempts typically include campaign contributions. In other words, a PAC contribution represents “exchange” and cements relationships.

So, while the massive grassroots noise definitely was a factor in changing minds, it was not, as some who look simplistically at the situation, the only reason for the lawmaker’s change of heart. Remember, in an influence war, it’s never one thing, it’s many things that combine to win hearts and minds.

You can read more about the workshop version of the research findings here:

http://www.showaltergroup.com/services/workshops2.php

Amy Showalter is president of The Showalter Group, Inc., a Cincinnati-based firm that advises trade associations, Fortune 500 companies and nonprofit organizations on how to increase their grassroots and PAC effectiveness. Reach her at amy@showaltergroup.com.

Copyright 2007-2008, The Showalter Group, Inc.
Reproduction is prohibited without written permission.

Noah Didn’t Build The Ark When It Was Raining: The Top 13 Things To Do Now for Grassroots Success in 2009

By Amy Showalter, The Showalter Group and
Elizabeth Welsh, Executive Communications, Inc.

We’ve all been there: it’s 2:00 p.m. on a Tuesday afternoon and you got word that your bill is up for a committee or floor vote in 48 hours. You are frantically getting your grassroots mobilized, posting your online content, trying to find out if you have any members who have a personal relationship with key lawmakers, and wondering what you are forgetting. Unfortunately, this is what many grassroots professionals use as their recruiting “strategy.” But, it’s obviously the worst time to engage in grassroots recruitment. So why does it persist? Because we aren’t thinking ahead in the “off season.” In fact, there is no “off season.”

What do sports coaches do in the off season? They look back at the past season, plot improvements for the next year, recruit, try out and train new team members. Now is not the time for R&R, but E&R (evaluation and recalibration) of your 2008 grassroots mobilizations. What worked? What didn’t? What are your patterns of success (and failure?)

It’s best to have a strategy in place long before your bills come up for consideration, and you have to constantly check the blood supply, which is your volunteer pipeline.

Liz Welsh recalls, “I’ll never forget that Friday afternoon when I got a frantic call at about 4 pm because an organization just found out that their worker’s comp bill was coming up on Monday and it had a provision that they just couldn’t live with. We had to start from scratch, identify the largest employers in each committee member’s district, reach the C-levels in those companies over the weekend to tell them what was going on, elicit their support and have them contact their legislators with a plea to kill the bill unless they removed the undesirable provision, all before Monday. While we were successful, you can bet that was an expensive endeavor that could have been avoided. By building that database and communicating with those high-ups ahead of time, pulling the trigger on the spur of the moment (or at 4:00 on a Friday afternoon), would have been a more manageable and more cost effective process.”

So, here is our “Top 13” list on what you should be doing now to reduce your stress, improve efficiency, and have better results with your 2009 grassroots activations.

1. Get outta town and get FTF. Get away from your computer and get face to face (FTF) with your stakeholders. Fair or unfair, our profession has taken credibility hits. Lobbying scandals, as well as presidential candidates who abhor lobbyists, reinforce a negative image. We have to get in front of our stakeholders, show that we are human, and that we are not unethical, kitten-hating professionals. You’ve seen the research that shows most Americans hate Congress, but like their Congressman? Why is that? Because they feel they “know” their member of Congress. Same “logic” applies here. If they don’t know you, have never seen you, they can’t like you. Build goodwill now by “getting outta town.”

2. Mind the patterns. Which legislative districts are most responsive? Do you know why? Review all email open rates, click throughs, forwards, and page visits. You probably do this after each grassroots mobilization campaign, but look at the broader pattern and build on what’s working. Review all of your metrics. How many individuals did you have to touch to find one advocate? How many advocates did you have to call to action to produce one meaningful communication?

3. Talk to your TB’s (true believers). Survey your regular responders. Again, we are building from a strength here. What do they find compelling about your calls to action? What are their recommendations for getting more responses? Do this in a methodical way in order to produce meaningful response data that can be incorporated into your strategy to improve your results.

4. Build the team. The “e-mail as panacea” crowd has now realized that we have to move online volunteers to offline activity (We knew they would finally catch up). However, you can’t do this unless you have a “grassroots path” for them to walk. You need a well-lead, well-managed offline structure. Remember the origins of true grassroots – people talking with other people.

5. Find unusual suspects and recruit them to your cause. Legislators expect to hear from your own industry on your concerns. But how much greater is the impact when they hear from their constituents who are not your industry insiders? What about individuals outside your industry who donated to their campaigns? What about community leaders, local electeds, area employers, heads of other industry?

6. Recruit and educate outsiders. Once you identify third party advocates for your position, take the necessary time and steps to nurture your relationships with them. Educate them, tell them how the issue currently or may eventually impact them. Arm them with the knowledge to speak out passionately and intelligently when the time comes. This is especially critical on complicated or technical issues, and it does take time. Again, start this now.

7. Build your database. Determine who your inside and outside supporters are, the level to which they agree with your position and what they are willing to do for you. Also make sure you understand how they - each one individually - prefer to be contacted. In this day and age of email glut you may be surprised at what you learn! You’ll likely experience a significant increase in your response rate and ultimate impact by finding out, recording and then utilizing this simple and easily tracked information.

8. Stay in contact. An informed and engaged advocate will likely do much more than click an email link when you need them. They will write personal letters, make personal calls, engage their friends, families and associates, find opportunities for intervention with their legislators, write letters to the editors of publications, even attend public hearings, visit face to face with legislators or testify when you need them to, all because they believe in your cause and are well-informed, even passionate about your issue.

Think about, budget for, and prepare new and different ways to touch and talk with your advocates. Receiving a logoed trinket, a friendly thank you call or hand written note from time to time goes a long way in engaging your volunteers. Let them hear from you often, even when you are not mobilizing them, with thoughtful tidbits of information or affinity items. People like to know they are being thought of, that they belong, and they will be less likely to feel that they are just being used.

9. Ask the customer. If you are really intent on improving, you’ll do a survey with your key legislators to determine your true effectiveness. They will tell you how you compare to other groups, if your members’ communications are on target and on time, what your grassroots advocates do well and how you might improve your impact. You’ll learn a lot about this aspect of your legislative brand.

10. Find legislator preferences. Find out how they each prefer to be communicated with. Do you know who the legislative aides are for your industry in each office? Have you asked them whether they would prefer emails, calls, letters, faxes, petitions? If they prefer flowers or chocolates (to assuage the inevitable pain of attentively receiving and appropriately directing the thousands of communications soon to come to them from your advocates)? You will be amazed at what you can find out simply by asking!

11. Audit your mobilization process. What are you doing because “it’s always been done that way?” What tools aren’t you using? If there are snags in the process, where do they typically occur? With whom (staff or volunteers) do they typically occur?

Did I ever tell you the story of why I cut the end off the ham before I cook it, even though (unknown to me until recently) some people consider the end of the ham the very best part? Well, because my mother did. When I asked her she said because her mother did. When we finally asked my grandmother she said it was because she didn’t have a pan big enough to cook the whole ham! Are you throwing away what could be a valuable if not the best part of your opportunity to affect change just because it’s always been done that way?

12. Ask the pros. Professionals make it their business to stay on top of what is and isn’t working. Are you reinventing the wheel every time? Are there tools and techniques that are working for others that you haven’t discovered yet? Professionals are often willing to share their expertise with you just for the asking!

13. Build the ark now! One thing is certain – the political rain is coming. You have all the necessary tools and materials to build your ark before the storm hits, so start hammering the nails.

Amy Showalter is national government relations productivity expert who specializes in helping grassroots, PAC, and lobbying professionals improve their performance. She is the author of “105 Ways to Build Relationships with Your Legislators” and producer of the Innovate to Motivate conference, a community for experienced political involvement professionals.

www.showaltergroup.com
www.innovatetomotivate.com

Elizabeth Welsh, President of Executive Communications, Inc., recipient of 17 American Association of Political Consultants’ National Pollie Awards for political communication campaign excellence, has worked on over 1,000 political communications campaigns in her 25 year career, building, educating and mobilizing grassroots armies that make the difference for her clients.

www.executive-com.com

I2M 2009: Why It's the Best Value for Your Mind and Your Money

The game has changed, but you still have to get out on the field. You and your political involvement programs can be successful if you know how to leverage the current dynamics in your favor.

Innovate to Motivate has always been the better value for your mind. And, it’s a better value for your money (see our competitive hotel room rates below). But, it’s not for everyone. Our content is an inch wide and a mile deep. It’s a challenging environment for those in the sincere pursuit of excellence in the political involvement profession and their own personal/professional growth. We were the first to focus on this important combination, and we aren’t softening the curriculum.

We have over 20 workstorms (that’s not a typo – we work and brainstorm!) in the disciplines of grassroots, PAC, the science of influence, and professional development.

Do you know. . . .

What you must have in place before you can
get people offline and in front of their legislators?

What the newest PAC research reveals about how to predict the PAC contribution patterns of your competitors?

The many over looked, but legal activities you
should be executing via your PAC?

How to get attention for any message through the art and science of intrigue?

How to secure over 900 new PAC members in less than a year?

Techniques from the military’s basic training that you
can apply to fighting grassroots & PAC fatigue?

What to unload that will allow you to get more done?

The tactics that will enable you to raise
more, not less, money in a tough economy?

The skill(s) that is attributable to 85% of business success?

How to gain a fan base among your internal administrative allies?
(IT, PR, HR, etc.)

PAC management techniques that will allow your PAC to almost run itself?

The over 17 “little” things you can do immediately to achieve
big gains in your PAC’s brand and performance?

How to give back and build political involvement goodwill
by building your own charitable event?

Plus, we have new opportunities and benefits in 2009:

1. Access to Brett Kappel and Brad Smith at Vorys, Sater, Seymour and Pease for general federal PAC questions. You receive this tremendous benefit without paying thousands of dollars in dues to an organization. www.vorys.com

2. Celebrate your success by giving back at our first community service project afternoon on Wednesday, February 11 at the Beacon of Hope Resource center: www.lakewoodbeacon.org. This opportunity is sponsored by Vorys.

3. A reasonable room rate! We will be at the fantastic Hotel Monteleone in New Orleans, the French Quarter’s only 4-star hotel. Our room rate is only $189.00 single/double per night. www.hotelmonteleone.com

4. Leaders Edge Discount! Five or more individuals from the same organization attend at the discounted rate of only $599. ($849 is the regular early bird registration fee) For example, if a national association has state association staff who wish to attend, if five or more register, the fee is only $599. This discount is an economical way to reward your grassroots and PAC volunteers.

If you want to reach your goals faster and have fun doing it, I’ll see you in New Orleans.

You’ll receive a brochure in the mail mid-November, and you can also register now: www.innovatetomotivate.com

Onward,

Amy Showalter
Producer and Co-Founder
Innovate to Motivate

Kelly Knowles
Director of Political Affairs
American Bakers Association
Co-Chair, Innovate to Motivate 2009

Patti D'Auria Murphy
Manager, Legislative Affairs
BNSF Railway Company
Co-Chair, Innovate to Motivate 2009

A Message from our 2009 I2M Co-Chairs, Patti Murphy and Kelly Knowles

We’ve attended numerous government relations conferences and workshops. We have chosen to lead this year’s conference because, among many reasons, it’s known for motivating attendees to a higher level of personal and professional performance. This is due to the participant profile, as the premier grassroots and PAC professionals interact in the workstorms.

We depart the I2M conference inspired, with new and innovative ideas to implement in our PAC and grassroots programs. And not only do we leave with the ideas, but we walk away with a detailed strategy of how to transform those ideas into reality.

Plus, for the first time ever, I2M 2009 is offering an afternoon during the conference for attendees to give back and volunteer their time with the Beacon of Hope charity. In a business that tends to become so self-consumed, it’s refreshing to have the opportunity to give back for a greater cause.

It is the most rigorous conference for PAC and grassroots professionals and we wouldn’t miss it for the world. Plus, I2M is a great place to have fun and make new friends!

See you in New Orleans!

Kelly Knowles, Director, Government Affairs, American Bakers Association

Patti Murphy, Manager, Legislative Affairs, BNSF Railway Company

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About
The Showalter Group, Inc.

The Showalter Group works with associations and corporations that want to increase their grassroots and PAC productivity. We provide highly customized solutions via grassroots consultation, public affairs staff and volunteer training, coaching for public affairs staff, keynote presentations, and grassroots project management.

To book Amy Showalter to speak at your next meeting, or to inquire about our grassroots or PAC consulting services or other products, contact us at: